DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...TX...

HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE LATE DAY1 NEAR BRO THEN TRACK
INTO CNTRL TX BEFORE CURVING INTO THE SRN PLAINS LATE.  GIVEN THE
INTENSITY OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM...LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR WILL BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED ROTATING UPDRAFTS ACROSS THE MIDDLE TX COAST
INTO THE HILL COUNTRY OF CNTRL TX...PRIMARILY THE ERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CYCLONE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE
POSSIBLE THUS WILL MAINTAIN A 5% PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
WITH THIS SYSTEM.  WILL ADJUST THE 5% RISK INLAND TO REFLECT
EXPECTED STORM TRACK.

...OH VALLEY...

FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY WITH MEANINGFUL HEIGHT FALLS
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-70.  FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE AND STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD PROVE ADEQUATE
FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN DEEP WSWLY FLOW.  WHILE
MARGINAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
LIMIT INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION A STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS WITHIN AN OTHERWISE MODESTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WHERE SFC
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NEAR 90F.

..DARROW.. 09/06/2010

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010

VALID 061630Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT FOR IA...SRN MN...AND WRN WI...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE TX
COAST...

...IA/SRN MN/WRN WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
A STRONG MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ENEWD FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY TONIGHT.  A REMNANT LEE
CYCLONE IN E CENTRAL NEB WILL DEVELOP NNEWD TO SW AND W CENTRAL MN
BY TONIGHT AS THE CYCLONE OCCLUDES...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS EWD ACROSS IA/WI AND SEWD ACROSS NW MO/KS/NRN OK BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.  THE WARM SECTOR IN ADVANCE OF THE CYCLONE IS
INITIALLY CAPPED BY A VERY WARM EML...ABOVE A MARGINALLY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S.  THE MARITIME
TROPICAL AIR MASS STILL RESIDES S OF I-20 IN TX PER SURFACE OBS/GOES
PW IMAGERY AND 12Z SOUNDINGS...AND THE RECENT RUC/NAM FORECASTS OF
68-70 F DEWPOINTS INTO IA THIS EVENING APPEAR TOO AGGRESSIVE. 
THUS...EXPECT AT BEST MID 60S DEWPOINTS WITH AFTERNOON
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND SOME NEWD MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM OK.

THE VERY WARM EML WILL REQUIRE STRONG ASCENT TO ELIMINATE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION BY LATE AFTERNOON IN A NARROW BAND ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...WHERE MLCAPE COULD APPROACH 1500-2000 J/KG.  FORECAST WIND
PROFILES AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND E/SE OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE CLOCKWISE-TURNING HODOGRAPHS. 
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION WILL ALSO FAVOR SEMI-DISCRETE
STORMS FROM IA NWD INTO SRN MN.  IT APPEARS THAT THE MARGINAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG CAP WILL LIMIT THE SPATIAL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR SUPERCELLS AND MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR STORMS TO
SURVIVE MORE THAN A FEW COUNTIES E OF THE FRONT.  THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN 5% TORNADO AND 15% HAIL/WIND PROBABILITIES IN AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT COULD OTHERWISE SUPPORT A MORE ROBUST SEVERE STORM
THREAT.

A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP SWWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING FROM
NW MO ACROSS ERN KS INTO N CENTRAL OK.  STORM INITIATION WILL DEPEND
ON STRONG LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT AND RELATIVELY DEEP
MIXING FARTHER SW TOWARD NRN OK...AND STORM COVERAGE IS
QUESTIONABLE.  IF STORMS FORM...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING.

...MIDDLE TX COAST TONIGHT...
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH
JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL ALONG THE LOWER TX COAST LATE TONIGHT /SEE
LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR DETAILS/.  DEEPENING OF THE CYCLONE WILL
RESULT IN A CORRIDOR OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR TO THE RIGHT
OF THE CYCLONE CENTER...WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD THE MIDDLE TX COAST
OVERNIGHT.  THE CORRIDOR OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO
COINCIDE WITH MID-UPPER 70S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AND AT LEAST
WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.  GIVEN THESE ENVIRONMENTAL
FACTORS...WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT RISK AND 5% TORNADO PROBABILITIES
FOR OUTER BAND SUPERCELLS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

..THOMPSON/HURLBUT.. 09/06/2010

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010

VALID 061700Z - 071200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...SERN WY/N-CNTRL CO E/SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
MID MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS GUIDANCE
SHOW LOW PRESSURE MOVING NEWD ACROSS SRN NEB...WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING SWWD INTO WRN KS AND ERN CO. WIND SPEEDS AOA 20 MPH ARE
OBSERVED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AT 15Z...AND ARE FORECAST BY
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE TO SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS POST
FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX. AS THIS TAKES PLACE...A
BRIEF PERIOD OF CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES /15-20 PERCENT/ MAY OVERLAP
THE STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS...LEADING TO AN HR OR TWO OF LOCALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER N-CNTRL CO AND SERN WY. FARTHER E OVER WRN
NEB/KS...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LONGER DURATION OF
STRONG N/NWLY WINDS...BUT ALSO SHOWS SLIGHTLY MORE MARGINAL RH
VALUES /GENERALLY AOA 20 PERCENT/. THEREFORE...NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN
MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

...SERN MO...NERN AR...SRN IL/IND...WRN KY/TN...
PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. MORNING SURFACE AND UPPER
AIR OBSERVATIONS...IN ADDITION TO LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE
NEAR TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH REGION. THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE FOR SERN MO...SRN IL
AND SRN IND...WHERE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO
OVERLAP CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES /15 TO 25 PERCENT/ FOR A FEW HOURS.


...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY OF NRN CA...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

..GARNER.. 09/06/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0236 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010/

...SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL ROCKIES TOWARDS THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH
EARLY TUE. ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL
TRACK NEWD TO MN...WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES BY EARLY EVENING. IN THE
WEST...AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ALONG THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENING OVER THE PACIFIC NW.

...SERN WY/N-CNTRL CO E/SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
AREAS OF SHORT-DURATION CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO LONGER-DURATION
MARGINAL CONDITIONS APPEAR PROBABLE FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY LARGE SPREAD PERSISTS AMONGST LATEST
NAM/GFS/SREF GUIDANCE WITH THE DEGREE OF DRYING OCCURRING IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS MORNING. 00Z NAM AND 03Z SREF MEAN
INDICATE CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES WILL BE RELEGATED TO ALONG THE LEE
OF THE FRONT RANGE IN N-CNTRL CO...WHILE THE 00Z GFS SUGGESTS LOW RH
WILL ALSO BE PREVALENT TO THE N/E ACROSS SERN WY INTO WRN NEB/KS.
MODEL FORECASTS ARE MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE DEPICTION OF A SURGE IN
LOW-LEVEL W/NWLYS ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE LATER THIS
MORNING. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS
AROUND NOON ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN N-CNTRL CO...PRIOR TO WINDS
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. FARTHER E INTO WRN NEB/KS...LONGER DURATIONS
OF STRONG N/NWLY WINDS /FROM 20 TO 30 MPH/ APPEAR LIKELY.
HOWEVER...BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS OF MUCH COOLER/HIGHER RH
VALUES...AFTERNOON RH VALUES MAY ONLY BECOME MARGINALLY LOW /FROM 20
TO 30 PERCENT/.

...SERN MO...NERN AR...SRN IL/IND...WRN KY/TN...
AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AS SLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASE WITHIN AN ANTECEDENT WARM/DRY AIR MASS
ACROSS THE LOWER MS/OH VALLEY...WHERE ABNORMAL DRYNESS AND MODERATE
DROUGHT PERSIST. MODEL FORECASTS REMAIN HIGHLY CONSISTENT THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S...WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING TO BETWEEN 18 AND 25 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN...THIS REGION OF LOW RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN
TO THE E/SE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW CENTERED OVER THE MID-MO
VALLEY. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MODERATE /NEAR 15
MPH/...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.

...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY OF NRN CA...
RECENT MESONET OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM AREAS OF GUSTY NLY WINDS /AROUND
2O TO 30 MPH/ OCCURRING ACROSS THE NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND
SURROUNDING FOOTHILLS. THIS HAS SUPPORTED POOR OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERY...WITH 12 TO 20 PERCENT READINGS COMMON AS OF 07Z. AS THE
TIGHT LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE PACIFIC NW WEAKENING...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. NEVERTHELESS...LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RH APPEAR LIKELY
WITH MIN VALUES NEAR 5 PERCENT AT PEAK HEATING.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN NV...
MODEL DIFFERENCES DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS D2 FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE
OBSERVED. THEREFORE...NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE ATTM.

...NRN SIERRA MTNS OF NERN CA/NWRN NV...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

...SRN LOWER MI...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

...PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU IN SERN OH...WRN WV/PA...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

..GARNER.. 09/06/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0456 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010/

...SYNOPSIS...
POTENT UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL
TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/SRN ONTARIO THROUGH EARLY WED.
ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MARCH EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST BY TUE AFTERNOON. IN THE WEST...A LARGE-SCALE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME ANCHORED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW INTO
NRN CA.

...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN NV...
LATEST MODEL FORECASTS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE DEPICTION OF A
WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
AMPLIFYING OVER THE PACIFIC NW. ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX WILL AID IN
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TUE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MODEL
FORECASTS DIFFER WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS STRENGTHENING. 06Z NAM
AND ASSOCIATED WRF MEMBERS IN THE 03Z SREF APPEAR STRONGER THAN 00Z
GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE. IN ADDITION...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE MORE
ROBUST SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE EMANATING NWD FROM NWRN
MEXICO/AZ...SUGGESTING THE JUXTAPOSITION OF STRONG WINDS/LOW RH
WOULD BE NARROW BOTH SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY. AS SUCH...CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE FOR DELINEATING A CRITICAL AREA ATTM.

...NRN SIERRA MTNS OF NERN CA/NWRN NV...
LOW/MID-LEVEL SWLYS WILL STRENGTHEN WITH APPROACH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. HOWEVER...MODEL FORECASTS
DIFFER WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS STRENGTHENING DURING THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE...WITH THE NAM/WRF-BASED SREF MEMBERS STRONGER THAN
THE GFS/ECMWF. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY EVENING WHICH MAY MARGINALIZE THE
DURATION OF POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS OVERLAPPING WITH LOW RH.
PREDICTABILITY REMAINS TOO LOW TO CONFIDENTLY DELINEATE A CRITICAL
AREA ATTM.

...SRN LOWER MI...
A SHORT-DURATION PERIOD OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP DURING
MID AFTERNOON ON TUE. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
SUBSTANTIAL LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC DRYING WILL OCCUR AS A MID-LEVEL DRY
SLOT OVERSPREADS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHES EWD TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RH VALUES SHOULD BECOME
MARGINALLY LOW FOR A FEW HOURS /FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT/ UNTIL MORE
PRONOUNCED COOLING OCCURS LATE IN THE DAY. WITH 40 TO 50 MPH
LOW-LEVEL FLOW...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH APPEAR
LIKELY. RAINFALL DURING THE PAST WEEK AND THE SHORT DURATION OF
MARGINALLY LOW RH SHOULD HELP MITIGATE THE OVERALL THREAT.

...PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU IN SERN OH...WRN WV/PA...
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP TUE AFTERNOON AS A
RELATIVELY WARM/DRY AIR MASS REMAINS WITHIN A NARROW SW TO NE
CORRIDOR DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS SWLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW INCREASES...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MODERATE
/NEAR 15 MPH/. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER
90S WILL SUPPORT RH VALUES BECOMING MARGINALLY LOW /AROUND 25 TO 30
PERCENT/. GIVEN BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
PAST FEW WEEKS...AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS PROBABLE.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010

VALID 081200Z - 141200Z

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY/D5 AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS.
ON WEDNESDAY/D3...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS CA AND TOWARD THE WRN GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL FOCUS
STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL SWLY WIND FIELDS ACROSS ERN/SRN NV...WRN
UT...AND NWRN AZ. AS A RESULT...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS UP TO 25 MPH
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE MIDST OF A WARM/DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER AIR MASS FAVORING AFTERNOON RH VALUES AOB 15 PERCENT...WHICH
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA. THE TROUGH IS THEN
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY/D4...WHICH WILL
AID IN NEAR CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS FROM WY S-SWWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CO/UT INTO AZ. ATTM...CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE TOO MARGINAL TO
SUPPORT AN OUTLOOK AREA...BUT AN UPGRADE REMAINS POSSIBLE IN FUTURE
FORECASTS. MODEL GUIDANCE THEN EJECTS THE TROUGH INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS ON FRIDAY/D5...FAVORING A WARM/DRY DOWNSLOPE WIND REGIME OVER
THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

BEYOND FRIDAY/D5...MREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL
EVOLVE TO QUASI-ZONAL...WHILE THE ECMWF INDICATES A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN WILL PREVAIL /WITH ANOTHER TROUGH ENTERING THE PAC NW OVER
THE WEEKEND/. DUE TO LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE INDICATED BY THE MODEL
OUTPUT...ADDITIONAL CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREAS CANNOT BE DELINEATED
ATTM.

..GARNER.. 09/06/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...